— From Mexico, DAVID RABY reports that although Morena’s candidate is expected to win, unless that victory is outright and massive, the nation’s recent bold programme of progress could be subverted by the right
THIS Sunday June 2 it really is all up for grabs in Mexico, with the election of a new president, 128 senators, 500 deputies (MPs) in the lower house, nine state governors and many local mayors and local assembly members.
As Tony Burke explained very well in an article in the Star (A crucial juncture for Mexico, May 22) almost all polls give a huge lead — from 20 to 28 per cent — to Claudia Sheinbaum, presidential candidate of Morena (or to be more precise, of the Let’s Keep Making History coalition with two smaller parties).
A distant second is Xochitl Galvez of the Strength and Heart for Mexico conservative coalition uniting the right-wing PAN, the previously dominant PRI and two smaller parties. In third place is Jorge Alvarez Maynez of the Citizens’ Movement, a centrist party with a very opportunistic record.
No serious observers foresee anything other than a Sheinbaum and Morena victory, but there are other factors at play which complicate the situation.
The judiciary, from the supreme court downwards, is, with a few exceptions, profoundly corrupt, and dominated by the right which is using it to throw up legal obstacles for Morena and might even attempt a judicial coup, using spurious pretexts to invalidate the election.
The enormous strength of public opinion and Morena’s overwhelming majority and organisation may well prevent this, but they will try to use it to delay the process of installation of the new government and to cast doubt on international recognition of the result.
A crucial factor also is that outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Amlo) and Morena have called for a two-thirds majority in the two houses of congress: this is necessary to pass constitutional reforms, above all of the judiciary.
This is why Sheinbaum and her team are calling on people to “Vote All Morena”, ie to vote Morena and its allies for all the options on their ballot paper, president, senator, MP and any other options on their ballot. A split vote favours the opposition.
Mainstream Mexican and international media have become increasingly vitriolic and hysterical in their mendacious campaign against Mexico’s process of “4T Transformation,” but this is a reflection of their desperation, most Mexicans are immune to their lies and libels which tend to boomerang and increase support for Morena and the 4T Transformation. Again, their impact is mainly international which is why the solidarity movement has to denounce and expose them.
Talking to people on the street will always produce random results, and your correspondent has found very varied opinions. Small and medium business owners tend to favour the opposition, although one of Amlo’s successes has been to win over major business groups.
Hotel staff told us that Mexico is in chaos, but a few days ago a formal gathering of Mexico City hoteliers gave Amlo a standing ovation. An elderly lady from the conservative state of Guanajuato (governed by the PAN for 36 years), from a well-to-do traditional background, surprised me by saying that while she previously backed PAN, Amlo had won her over during the past five years by his honesty, modesty and effective policies; but her daughter remains a staunch PAN supporter.
Very interesting was a conversation with a beautician who runs a small business in a working-class area: she is a staunch supporter of Amlo and Morena and is completely committed to the 4T Transformation and its continuation. She was very clear in seeing violent protests by some anti-Amlo leftists as provocations to be condemned.
Campaigning for Sunday’s elections officially ended on Wednesday May 29, when all candidates held their closing rallies. Sheinbaum’s closing rally in the central Zocalo of the capital — one of the biggest public squares in the world — was a massive celebration of democracy and popular support for progressive change, with hundreds of thousands packing the Zocalo and surrounding streets despite the searing heat.
We are now in limbo, three days when all campaigning is banned until the vote on Sunday. Victory, especially if it were a complete victory with a two-thirds majority, would consolidate Mexico’s 4T Transformation as a revolutionary process. Defeat would be disastrous for Mexico and the entire region.
David L Raby is the co-ordinator of the Mexico Solidarity Forum and is reporting from Mexico for the Star. He can be reached at [email protected] and on X @DLRaby.
Source: https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/mexico%E2%80%99s-electoral-moment-truth-approaches